President Trump finally made it official this morning: Kevin Warsh is his pick to lead the Federal Reserve starting in May.
If you’ve been following the public “audition” process over the last few months, the news probably isn’t a shock. Trump even called Warsh “central casting” for the role.
But while the White House is cheering for a new era of lower interest rates, you should take a beat before assuming your mortgage or credit card rates are about to plummet. Kevin Warsh is a complicated figure with a paper trail that might make Wall Street—and your savings account—a little jumpy.
Here is what this leadership “regime change” actually means for the economy and your money.
A hawk in dove’s clothing?
For years, Kevin Warsh was known as an “inflation hawk”—the kind of guy who worries about rising prices even when they aren’t there. During his first stint at the Fed from 2006 to 2011, he was often the skeptical voice in the room, pushing back against the massive money-printing and bond-buying programs used to rescue the economy after the 2008 crash.
Lately, though, Warsh has changed his tune to align more with the president’s demands. He has argued that the Fed could lower interest rates “a lot” because productivity gains from things like AI will keep inflation in check.
The big question is which version of Warsh we get in May: the disciplined central banker or the team player who does the president’s bidding?
The Fed is a committee, not a monarchy
Even if Warsh wants to slash the benchmark federal funds rate—which currently sits between 3.5% and 3.75%—he can’t do it alone. He is just one of 12 voting members on the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC).
Right now, that committee is deeply divided. Half are worried that inflation is still too sticky to cut rates, while the other half are spooked by a slowing job market. Warsh will have to convince a room full of PhD economists to follow his lead, and they aren’t known for being easy pushovers.
Markets are already voting with their feet
Wall Street has a funny way of reacting to “easy money” promises. If investors think the Fed is cutting rates just to make a president happy—rather than following the data—they tend to freak out.
We saw a preview of this overnight. As rumors of the Warsh nomination solidified, gold prices tumbled 5% and silver dropped 13%. Why? Because markets are recalculating the potential of a disciplined fiscal hawk. If the world has faith in the Fed’s ability to fight inflation, long-term interest rates (the ones that actually control your mortgage) could go down, along with short-term rates.
What this means for you
Don’t go out and buy a new house or car based on the hope of 2% interest rates returning this summer.
- Mortgage rates: These are tied more to long-term Treasury yields than the Fed’s daily moves. If the market stays “jumpy” about Warsh, borrowing costs for mortgages could remain stubbornly high.
- Savings accounts: If you are enjoying 4% or 5% in a high-yield savings account, your window is closing. Warsh has made it clear he wants a smaller Fed balance sheet and lower rates. Now is the time to consider locking in a CD rate before the transition happens in May.
- The “independence” test: Watch how the Senate confirmation hearings go. If Warsh is seen as too much of a “loyalist,” expect more volatility in your 401(k).
The bottom line? We are moving from the “predictable” era of Jerome Powell into a period of high-stakes experimentation. Keep your emergency fund liquid and don’t make any big financial bets on political promises.
