About 10 years ago, I tried logging onto SSA.gov to check my Social Security benefits. You would think after decades of paying FICA taxes (6.2% for SS, 1.45% for Medicare), the government might make it easy to see what you’re entitled to. Nope. Instead, the system demanded to physically mail me a PIN. I tried three times over 12 months. Nothing ever arrived, so I gave up.
Then I tried again during COVID. Same thing. Perfect! After 20+ years of working, paying into the system, and saving diligently, I still couldn’t get into my own account. I never counted on Social Security anyway, so I chalked it up to another example of my tax dollars going… somewhere.
Thankfully, the government eventually consolidated login information through Login.gov. I reset my password completely online, uploaded my driver’s license and a selfie, and – miracle of miracles – finally accessed my Social Security dashboard through SSA.gov.
If you haven’t established your login yet, do it. As a personal finance nerd, it feels incredibly satisfying to poke around. Once you understand your Social Security progress, you can better plan for your retirement.
In fact, you may be saving $1 million more or working 5+ years more than you need to!
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My Projected Social Security Benefits
Below are my estimated monthly benefits if I start at 62, wait until full retirement age (67), or delay until 70:
- 62: $2,641
- 67: $3,751
- 70: $4,651
Since I’m feeling relatively healthy today at age 48, the most logical option is to wait until 67, my full retirement age. My goal is to not only reach 67, but stay healthy enough to enjoy the payout for decades after. After all, living longer and enjoying life is the biggest return on investment of all.
All of the projections assume I continue earning $50,000 a year until the year I claim Social Security. But if I drop my annual income to $0 starting this year at age 48, my projected benefits only fall by about $95–$133 per month, which isn’t a meaningful reduction. So please play around with your assumptions as well.
How The Social Security Benefits Are Calculated
Benefits are based on your lifetime earnings. Social Security “indexes” your past wages for inflation, then averages your highest 35 years to determine your monthly benefit amount. For 2025, the 6.2% Social Security tax applies to income up to $176,100 for employees. If you are self-employed, you have to pay double.
To qualify for retirement benefits, you need 40 total work credits. You can earn up to 4 work credits per year, and in 2025, one credit is earned for every $1,730 of income. So if you earn at least $6,920 in a given year, you’ll receive the maximum 4 credits for that year.
These years do not have to be consecutive. Once you’ve earned your 40 credits (takes 10 years), you are considered fully insured for Social Security retirement benefits for life, even if you never work another day.
The more consistently you worked and the more you earned, the higher your benefit will be (within SSA limits). I’ve technically been paying FICA taxes since 1994, when I worked at McDonald’s in high school for two years, so I crossed the 40-credit threshold long ago.
Can I Live Off $3,751 a Month in Retirement?
Surprisingly… I think the answer is yes.
The benefit amounts shown on SSA.gov are expressed in today’s dollars. They don’t include future COLA (inflation) adjustments. But as we saw during COVID, Social Security is willing to keep up with inflation. 2023 saw an impressive 8.3% COLA increase. That was an eye-popping bump and gave me hope the system won’t let retirees fall too far behind.
If we assume ~3% annual inflation, my benefit in nominal terms will roughly be:
- ~$4,000/month at 62
- ~$6,500/month at 67
- ~$8,800/month at 70
Building a Budget to Live Only on Social Security
If I start at 67, I’ll receive $3,751/month, or $45,012/year in today’s dollars. Today, my family of four can’t live on that amount. But in 19 years? It’s highly possible assuming a few key things happen:
1. Both Kids Become Financially Independent
By 2044, when I’m 67, my kids will be 27 and 24. If they’ve launched successfully, they shouldn’t need help from the Bank of Mom & Dad. I estimate a 40% chance of this happening, given how home prices have outpaced wage growth. Young adults face a tough road to independence, especially with higher housing costs.
That said, I’ve intentionally purchased a rental property each time one of my children was born. The plan is to hold these properties through their college years to help cover the cost of raising them. And if they decide they want to live in San Francisco as adults, I’ll rent the homes to them at 30% of their gross income, which feels both fair and financially sustainable. If they don’t end up needing the housing, I’ll simply continue using the rental properties to help fund our retirement.
2. We’re 100% Debt-Free
This is extremely likely. I only have one rental property mortgage left, which I’m on track to pay off by 2030. I could pay it off now with my Treasury bond holdings, but since Treasuries yield ~2% more than my mortgage rate, I’d rather keep the spread and earn free money.
3. We Relocate to Honolulu To Save Money
Even without a mortgage on our San Francisco home, property taxes and maintenance exceed my Social Security benefit. The solution is to move into my parents’ property in Honolulu. The place is paid off, the land has multiple homes, we spent $40,000 updating the in-law unit, and I’d be splitting property taxes and maintenance costs two or three ways. Hawaii’s property tax rate is the lowest in America.
If these three things happen, I’m 90% confident I could live off $3,751 a month gross. Here’s a realistic budget per month:
- Core living expenses: $1,500
- Food: $1,000
- Transportation: $300
- Entertainment: $300
- Medical: $500
- Total: $3,600 (vs. $3,751 monthly gross SS benefit)
My Wife Gets Social Security Too
Assuming my wife and I are both still around and together at 67, she’ll have a comparable benefit. Suddenly, we’re not talking about $3,751/month, we’re talking $7,000–$8,900/month, depending on when she starts taking Social Security. If she takes Social Security at 64 when I’m 67, then our combined Social Security benefits will be roughly $7,100/month.
With two people living together, housing and utilities don’t double, so the spending efficiency is huge. After core living expenses, we may have $5,000+ a month left. Plenty for food, travel, and hobbies.
Sure, we might not cruise Europe with a balcony room twice a year, but one nice vacation every year or two? Easily doable.
Hawaii offers so many free or inexpensive activities, such as beach days, tennis, pickleball, and hiking, that a high-rolling retirement isn’t necessary.
Even spending $100/day on food ($3,000/month) still leaves $2,000+ for everything else. Without debt and childcare expenses, life gets much easier to afford. In this scenario, I’m 98% certain we can live off both our Social Security benefits.
Add On Tax-Advantaged Retirement Accounts, Rental Properties, and Brokerage Accounts
Until today, I never seriously considered the idea that Social Security could cover 100% of our retirement expenses. Instead, my entire focus has always been on maxing out my 401(k), building a rental property portfolio, growing our taxable brokerage account, and investing in venture capital to fund our traditional retirement years.
But after running the numbers, it’s obvious I’ve saved way more than necessary. And strangely, even though I retired early at age 34, it might still not have been early enough!
Thanks to a roaring bull market in both stocks and real estate since 2012, when I left finance, my investments have compounded faster than my spending and income. Add in supplemental income from side hustles (e.g., Uber driving) and this site, and I’ve been grinding for no reason.
And now, with Bill Bengen raising the safe withdrawal rate from 4% to 5%, it reinforces the idea that we could all lighten up and relax more. If you are a regular Financial Samurai reader, I’m pretty sure most of you are accumulating more wealth than you need as well.
Social Security Millionaires In The Making
My estimated $45,012 in annual Social Security benefits starting at age 67 (in today’s dollars) is equivalent to having $1,125,300 in capital, assuming a 4% withdrawal rate. I assume many of you will likely have Social Security benefits in this same range.
In other words: we might all be Social Security millionaires. With roughly 65% of Americans owning homes, and the vast majority of homeowners over age 62 being mortgage-free, the narrative of an impending “retirement crisis” may be overstated.
Most Americans also have savings and taxable investment accounts to supplement Social Security. Some even have valuable lifetime pensions too. When taken together, the retirement picture for many people is likely much healthier than the headlines suggest.
If you’re burned out from work and have already run the numbers on your Social Security and retirement savings, consider negotiating a severance and breaking free sooner. I truly believe many of us are working longer than necessary. And if you secure a severance package, you’ll have a comfortable financial runway to support you as you enter the next chapter of your life.
Here are the other benefits of Social Security worth noting.
Understanding Social Security Survivor Benefits
If you pass away, survivor benefits may go to your:
- Spouse
- Minor or disabled children
- Dependent parents
Survivors typically receive 75%–100% of your full benefit depending on their relationship and age.
For single-earner households, this protection is huge. But these benefits alone usually aren’t enough to fully replace earnings, which is why term life insurance remains essential for young families.
What If You’re in a Long-Term Relationship but Not Married?
If you and your partner aren’t legally married, survivor benefits become tricky. The SSA generally will not treat a domestic partner as a spouse unless your state recognizes the relationship and you can prove it with documentation.
Even then, it’s not guaranteed.
If you want your partner to receive survivor benefits, the safest option is to get legally married a year before you think you’ll pass. However, given that can be difficult to figure out, perhaps shoot to get married before 62.
My Survivor Benefit Amounts
If I die this year, my family might receive:
- Minor child: $3,024
- Spouse caring for child under 16 or a disabled child: $3,024
- Spouse at full retirement age: $4,033
- Total max family benefit: $7,058
- One-time death benefit: $255
Understanding Social Security Disability Benefits (SSDI)
SSDI is income protection if you become unable to work due to a condition expected to last at least 12 months or result in death.
To qualify, you must:
- Have a severe medical condition that prevents you from doing previous work and any other suitable work.
- Have enough work credits (usually 5 of the last 10 years; younger workers need fewer).
Most SSDI recipients receive $1,000–$2,000/month, though benefits vary.
My SSDI estimate is $4,033/month.
You may want to complement SSDI with private disability insurance if you have dependents.
Social Security Medical Benefits: Medicare
Medicare is the main healthcare safety net for retirees and certain disabled individuals. You qualify by:
- Turning 65, or
- Receiving SSDI for 24 months
Medicare has four parts: A (hospital), B (medical), C (Medicare Advantage), and D (prescriptions). It covers a lot but not everything, especially long-term care, dental, vision, and hearing.
Retirees often supplement with Medigap or Medicare Advantage.
Medical costs can destroy even strong retirement plans, so Medicare provides a crucial baseline.
Social Security Isn’t Amazing, But It’s Far Better Than Nothing
Every personal finance enthusiast has run the math: if you invested your FICA taxes in an S&P 500 index fund over a career, you’d likely retire with multiple times the value of your Social Security benefit.
But here’s the reality: Most people would never consistently save and invest that money on their own.
The forced savings aspect helps prevent elderly poverty. Homeownership works similarly: by forcing people to pay down principal, they accumulate wealth they might not otherwise build.
For most of my career, I treated Social Security as irrelevant in my retirement planning. But now, at 48, actually looking at my dashboard, I’m warming up to the system.
My uncle retired from the federal government this year and began taking Social Security at 70. It makes a huge difference in his lifestyle. He was the one who told me about the new Login.gov system too while I was in Honolulu.
As I get closer to eligibility, I’m more appreciative of what this benefit can do. Taxes are still unpleasant, but at least with FICA, we do get something meaningful in return.
Readers, could you live off your Social Security benefits? If not, what gaps do you need to close before you get there? When was the last time you checked your Social Security dashboard?
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