Recently, I’m finding that I use Google search a lot less.
Years ago, it seemed to have a clear edge over the competition. But these days I often find the information I’m looking for faster using AI.
Apparently, I’m not the only one.
Since February 2023, Google has lost nearly 4% of the global search engine market.
Still, that’s a drop in the bucket for Google. The tech giant is the dominant search engine by a long shot, retaining an 89.5% share of the global market.
But if the U.S. government has its way, that could change very soon.
The Department of Justice (DOJ) says Google has used its Chrome web browser, along with billion-dollar deals with companies like Apple and Samsung, to make sure its search engine always comes first.
And in two major courtroom decisions over the last eight months, federal judges agreed, ruling that Google illegally built monopolies in search and online advertising.
These rulings mark the strongest legal challenges Google has faced in its 25-year history.
But the federal government wants to take things a step further.
On Monday, lawyers for the DOJ asked a judge to break up parts of Google’s business, including its Chrome web browser. It’s possible that Android, its smartphone operating system, could be spun off from the company too.
If that happens, it would mark a new era of regulation for Big Tech. Especially in light of similar antitrust lawsuits against Meta, Amazon and Apple.
The judge overseeing the case is expected to issue a decision on the remedies by the end of the summer.
And I’ll be following this story closely because of what it could mean for investors.
But I’m also concerned about how these lawsuits might impact the race for artificial superintelligence (ASI).
In other words, what happens to AI if Google and other Big Tech companies get broken up?
The Case Against Google
The DOJ says Google’s dominance doesn’t just come from building better products. It’s because the company makes sure its competitors never get a chance to compete.
Search is a primary example.
The company paid over $26 billion in 2021 to make sure Google was the default search engine on phones and browsers.
And it’s a number that keeps going up. Google paid Apple alone $19 billion for this privilege in 2022.
Source: George Mack on X
And it means that when you open Safari or Firefox or any other non-Google browser, you’re still probably searching through Google, whether you choose to or not.
Judge Amit Mehta ruled that these exclusive deals are anticompetitive and give Google an unfair advantage.
The next step for the court is deciding how to fix it.
The government wants big changes. It’s pushing for Google to sell Chrome. The DOJ is also asking for rules that would force Google to share some of its search data and limit the payments it makes to partners.
As you would expect, Google is appealing these decisions.
But it seems like something big is shifting.
As I mentioned, the government is also going after Meta, Amazon and Apple with similar cases.
This represents a major change from the era of “light-touch” antitrust enforcement of Big Tech over the past few decades.
And believe it could significantly alter the future of AI.
What a Breakup Could Mean for AI
Google isn’t just a search company. It’s one of the top players in AI.
Google owns DeepMind, which is behind some of the biggest breakthroughs in machine learning. And its Gemini chatbot, which is built into Google search, competes directly with OpenAI’s ChatGPT.
Google also maintains a huge advantage when it comes to building AI models.
You see, Google gathers huge amounts of data through search, YouTube, Chrome and its Android operating system that powers billions of phones around the world.
This massive amount of data is what the company uses to help train its AI models.
And there are other benefits to Google having a monopoly on search. It allowed the company to direct resources to Waymo, Google Glass and a host of other groundbreaking projects.
But if Google is forced to split up, that tight integration could be broken.
Professor Kislaya Prasad from the University of Maryland notes: “Google’s AI strategy is tightly woven into its other businesses. Breaking it up might not be impossible — but it would definitely untangle a lot of what makes its AI work so well.”
Fragmenting the company could mean separate teams and less access to critical data. Innovation might slow. And security features — like real-time threat detection that spans across Chrome, Android and Google Cloud — could become weaker.
That’s why Google has warned that government oversight could “hamstring” its ability to improve AI tools quickly.
But I see an even bigger risk with breaking up Google…
It could significantly impact who wins the race to ASI.
Chinese companies like DeepSeek are already racing ahead in AI and aren’t facing the same kind of regulations companies are facing here.
The fear is that the U.S. could fall behind in the global AI race if companies like Google are held back.
But what might seem like a setback for Google could actually help AI innovation.
Because when monopolistic companies like Google or Meta face breakups, it allows smaller players room to compete.
Think of it like pruning back a large tree in your backyard. Suddenly, the smaller plants beneath it have sunlight to grow.
When it comes to AI, a breakup of Google might lead to more focused innovation, like we recently saw with China’s DeepSeek R1 model.
After all, that’s what happened when AT&T was split up in 1984.
This breakup led to the creation of seven new telecom companies called “Baby Bells,” which sparked the rise of the modern internet and companies like Verizon.
Something similar happened in the late 1990s when Microsoft faced antitrust scrutiny.
The tech giant was forced to loosen its grip on the software market, and that shift helped make room for companies like Google, Facebook and Apple to thrive.
Now Google might be facing the same kind of reckoning that once gave it the chance to flourish.
Here’s My Take
Right now, a few Big Tech companies dominate AI here in the U.S.
They control the biggest datasets and the most powerful hardware, and they often hire the most talented researchers.
Breaking up Google, or even forcing it to share data or limit exclusive contracts, could democratize those resources.
Meta’s legal troubles could be a good thing for AI too. Its open-source AI models, like Llama, have already become some of the most downloaded in the world.
If courts push companies like Meta and Google to open up even more, smaller startups might finally get the tools they need to build serious competitors.
And more competition often leads to more breakthroughs.
But I am concerned about the risks of breaking up these tech giants in the face of stiff competition from China.
What DeepSeek was able to accomplish is impressive, but I believe big AI models need big budgets…
And that U.S. companies need the resources to run Manhattan Project-scale AI programs.
It remains to be seen how far judges are willing to go to reshape one of the world’s most powerful companies.
But no matter the final ruling on Google, it’s clear that the antitrust era of “light-touch” enforcement is over.
The U.S. government has shown it’s willing to challenge the biggest names in tech.
And if Google is forced to break up its business, it will mark a turning point in how America handles innovation…
And about who gets to shape the future of AI.
Regards,
Ian King
Chief Strategist, Banyan Hill Publishing
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