Albemarle Lifts Lithium Demand Forecast as Energy Storage Surges

Storage steps into the spotlight

Global lithium demand reached 1.6 million metric tons in 2025, up more than 30 percent year-over-year and in line with Albemarle’s prior projections. Demand growth outpaced supply, tightening inventories and lifting prices into year-end.

For 2026, Albemarle now expects global lithium demand to rise to between 1.8 million and 2.2 million metric tons — growth of 15 to 40 percent — driven by both EV adoption and accelerating deployments of stationary energy storage systems (ESS).

While global EV sales climbed 21 percent in 2025, energy storage was the standout. ESS demand surged more than 80 percent year-over-year, with strong growth across China, North America and Europe.

China, which accounted for roughly 40 percent of ESS shipments, saw demand rise 60 percent. North American shipments jumped 90 percent, reflecting grid stability needs and rising electricity consumption linked to data centers and artificial intelligence. European shipments more than doubled as countries expanded renewables and sought greater energy security.

Demand outside the three major regions grew 120 percent and represented more than 20 percent of global ESS shipments, with Southeast Asia, the Middle East and Australia emerging as key growth markets.

The shift is already visible in Albemarle’s financials. In 2025, energy storage volumes reached 235,000 metric tons of lithium carbonate equivalent, up 14 percent year-over-year and above the high end of the company’s guidance range.

Fourth quarter energy storage net sales rose 23 percent from a year earlier, while segment EBITDA climbed 25 percent, supported by higher lithium pricing and cost improvements.

CFO Neal Sheorey said Albemarle’s updated 2026 scenarios reflect both pricing and operational gains.

Cost discipline, portfolio reset

After weathering a sharp downturn in lithium prices over the past two years, Albemarle has focused on strengthening its balance sheet and lowering its cost base.

In 2025, the company delivered approximately US$450 million in run-rate cost and productivity improvements and is targeting an additional US$100 million to US$150 million in 2026.

Albemarle also announced it will idle operations at its Kemerton lithium hydroxide plant in Western Australia, citing a structural cost gap between Western and Chinese conversion assets.

“There is a gap there between China and the West,” Masters said, pointing to higher labor, power and waste management costs in Australia. Idling the plant is expected to improve adjusted EBITDA beginning in the second quarter, with no impact on sales volumes.

At the same time, Albemarle is streamlining non-core assets.

The company closed the sale of its stake in the Eurocat joint venture in January and expects to complete the sale of a majority stake in its refining catalysts business in the first quarter. Together, the transactions are expected to generate approximately US$660 million in pre-tax proceeds.

“We are committed to maintaining our investment-grade credit profile,” Masters said, adding that deleveraging and disciplined capital allocation remain priorities.

Growth with limited new capital

Despite pulling back on large-scale capital spending, Albemarle expects to deliver a five-year compound annual growth rate of roughly 15 percent in energy storage sales volumes, building on a 25 percent CAGR over the past four years.

Incremental expansions at the Greenbushes mine in Australia, yield improvements at the Salar de Atacama in Chile and higher utilization at the Wodgina joint venture are expected to support growth with minimal additional capital.

Looking ahead, Masters said the company is better positioned to navigate lithium’s still-maturing cycle.

“We’ve been through two cycles since the advent of EVs,” he said, describing the market as early in its development from a commodity perspective.

With stationary storage now emerging as a second structural demand pillar alongside EVs, Albemarle’s revised outlook suggests the lithium market’s next phase will be shaped as much by grid resilience and energy security as by transportation electrification — broadening the base of demand for years to come.

Lithium prices rebound sharply in early 2026

Lithium prices have surged since the start of 2026, underscoring the market’s renewed volatility.

According to Fastmarkets, spot battery-grade lithium carbonate on the seaborne market climbed from about US$11 per kilogram in early December to more than US$16 per kilogram by early January, a jump of nearly 50 percent in a matter of weeks.

The rally has been driven by tightening supply, including delays to the reopening of CATL’s (SZSE:300750,HKEX:3750) Jianxiawo lepidolite mine and maintenance at other production facilities, alongside aggressive restocking tied to long-term contract negotiations.

Speculative buying has amplified the move, with bullish sentiment and geopolitical risk adding to momentum. At the same time, thin spot liquidity reflects a cautious market, as buyers and sellers hesitate to commit amid rapid price swings.

Spodumene prices have followed suit, rising above US$2,000 per metric ton in January, levels not seen since October 2023. The rebound has improved margins for Australian producers, many of whom curtailed output when prices fell below US$900 per metric ton. Sustained pricing at current levels could prompt a wave of mine restarts, potentially easing supply tightness later this year.

Still, Fastmarkets cautioned that prices may be running ahead of fundamentals.

“Lithium prices appear to have moved ahead of the fundamentals, propelled by speculative buying, bullish sentiment and a backdrop of heightened geopolitical risk,” wrote Paul Lusty. “The key takeaway is to brace for more volatility.”