There were just over 300 new homes sold across the entire
Toronto region
in April. A population of about 6.4 million people was mainly too scared to pull the trigger.
It was one of the worst months ever for sales, according to the Building Industry and Land Development Association. The market hasn’t improved much since.
But that didn’t stop Kim Meszaros, an insurance adjuster in her late 50s, who is one of the few to have jumped into the frigid waters of Canada’s largest
housing market
in recent months.
“It wasn’t really planned but at this stage, because I’m not quite retired, but I am looking ahead,” she said, adding she has been in the same house for 20 years and figured she wanted to downsize sooner rather than later.
Meszaros found her dream spot in Oakville, southwest of Toronto, in a project planned by Graywood Developments called Claystone Condos, which is aiming to attract end users as opposed to investors.
“It’s a crazy market out there with condos,” she said, fully aware of the drop in sales and prices. June sales were just 510 units, 82 per cent below the 10-year average for the month, BILD said.
Ron Butler, a mortgage broker who has been vocal about Toronto’s
condominium market
prices falling further, believes the number of presales is effectively closer to zero because projects sold today won’t be built.
“She is the one scenario where you can buy where it is a lifestyle choice,” said Butler, adding that for investors, the math no longer works. “The sales happening are mostly fictitious…. What will be built is closer to zero.”
Although he said there will be exceptions and they will be well-financed projects from developers with strong balance sheets. If you can wait, Butler said there will be much more downward pressure on existing high-rise condo prices.
At the same time, he believes rents will continue to fall because apartment construction is at levels not seen in decades.
“There is a play for the couple who haven’t started a family, but their rent is going down,” said Butler. They can wait and time the market.
Meszaros’ logic is pretty sound. Her daughter just graduated, has a job and is close to moving out, so it made sense to downsize.
She owns the luxury of time and has no frantic need to buy, the force that drive much of the action at the peak of the market.
Her dream 930-square-foot, two-bedroom-plus-den unit near Lake Ontario in a perfect community won’t be ready until 2028. Still, she had the luxury of being picky, choosing a building with an architect she liked and even getting a free parking spot with an
electric vehicle
charging station, on top of her chosen finishes.
“I do interior design on the side, and that is important to me,” Meszaros said.
With possession three years away, Meszaros still faces the task of selling her 25-year-old house, but she feels a recent renovation will help, and she can handle a price drop.
“Even if it is $100,000 off. Well, two years ago, at the COVID peak, I knew that was inflated,” she said.
Her other risk is that the developer may not finish the project or cancel it, but she is less worried on that front.
“I did my research,” she said, adding that a condo she purchased in Collingwood, Ont., during the peak pandemic period was eventually cancelled. “I got my money, but was a little gun-shy.”
Stephen Price, the president and chief executive of Graywood Developments, said people buying today are end users like Meszaros.
“The market has changed rather violently, and the investor has gone on holiday,” said Price.
He said the Claystone project, which launched in January with Japan’s Hankyu Hanshin Properties Corp., will be successful because it is aimed directly at end users.
“We had no misconceptions,” said Price, adding that the traditional target of reaching 70 per cent presale is now achieved on a different, less certain timeline. “It was 12 months to reach from launch, and transitioned to six months, and then you started to see condos reach that in three months. We reached that level in three days on one deal.”
Price said the difference today is that the market is facing a buyer who will live in the unit and take their time to make a purchase. It’s no longer just a commodity.
“They will come in multiple times to talk to the salesperson. They want to live and breathe the experience they hope to achieve,” he said. “They are not just buying square footage. They are buying a home.”
More importantly, the developer said, users want to know “the building is going to happen,” and he emphasized that his group has more than enough capital behind it.
“That confidence is an important draw,” he said.
Justin Sherwood, senior vice-president of stakeholder relations, research and communications with BILD, said those buying today have at least one incredible luxury: that of choice.
“You have 22,000 different units you could be considering, from a single family, to a semi, to a townhouse, to a condo. You name it. Every possible permutation of housing is out there,” said Sherwood. “You can be picky about where you want, and you have time to think about it. This is choice you haven’t had in 20 years. You have pricing, you haven’t seen since 2019.”
Even with all the research she did, Meszaros knows it sounds wild to buy today; she bucked a massive trend away from new homes. “I’m not worried. If things get ugly selling, maybe I work an extra year,” she said. “This just came at the right time.”
That is one of the trickiest issues about housing. Your home is an investment, but your life doesn’t always match the market’s timing.
